What's really working in regards to the Ukraine crisis right now? A resurgent Russia's projection of hard power through the annexation of Crimea, and a blatant effort to destabilize Eastern Ukraine; or Washington's and Brussel's soft power counterstrike of Moscow's, and in particular, Putin's cronies' global financial holdings?
Right now, the effects of the targeted financial sanctions against Putin's cronies are not stopping the FSB's provokatsiya operations in Eastern Ukraine. The latest news reported that a pro-Kiev mayor in a city in East Ukraine was shot by pro-Russia separatists, who are believed to be actual Russian operatives. The impact of the selective financial sanctions will definitely be felt in no time, but does Ukraine have enough time before its eastern regions descend to a level of chaos enough to provide Putin the pretext for an actual Crimeasque 'liberation' and formal annexation?
Ukraine will not be able to hold off the 80,000 Russian troops massed at its border, nor is it under any illusion that its own army units are even reliable enough to stage a holding action. What is certain is that if Washington's and Brussel's concerted diplomatic effort through selective sanctions proved insufficient, Moscow will definitely roll into East Ukraine on a pretext from its provokatsiya operations. With NATO committed to a non-confrontational approach militarily, it will be up to Ukraine to counter the Russian juggernaut. No one is under any illusion, especially in Ukraine, what 80,000 crack Russian troops can accomplish if given the order to move in to Ukraine.
Below are 2 articles from Newsweek; one is about the realpolitik-al situation in Eastern Ukraine, and the other is about the West's response, and its effectiveness. In my personal opinion in context to the Ukraine crisis, Mao had it right when he said, 'Political power grows out from a barrel of a gun.'
